diff --git a/include/qemu/aio.h b/include/qemu/aio.h
index 8cca2360d1..6c22064a28 100644
--- a/include/qemu/aio.h
+++ b/include/qemu/aio.h
@@ -195,7 +195,7 @@ struct BHListSlice {
 typedef QSLIST_HEAD(, AioHandler) AioHandlerSList;
 
 typedef struct AioPolledEvent {
-    int64_t ns;        /* current polling time in nanoseconds */
+    int64_t ns;     /* estimated block time in nanoseconds */
 } AioPolledEvent;
 
 struct AioContext {
@@ -306,6 +306,7 @@ struct AioContext {
     int poll_disable_cnt;
 
     /* Polling mode parameters */
+    int64_t poll_ns;        /* current polling time in nanoseconds */
     int64_t poll_max_ns;    /* maximum polling time in nanoseconds */
     int64_t poll_grow;      /* polling time growth factor */
     int64_t poll_shrink;    /* polling time shrink factor */
diff --git a/util/aio-posix.c b/util/aio-posix.c
index 351847c6fb..8e9e9e5d8f 100644
--- a/util/aio-posix.c
+++ b/util/aio-posix.c
@@ -29,9 +29,11 @@
 
 /* Stop userspace polling on a handler if it isn't active for some time */
 #define POLL_IDLE_INTERVAL_NS (7 * NANOSECONDS_PER_SECOND)
+#define POLL_WEIGHT_SHIFT   (3)
 
-static void adjust_polling_time(AioContext *ctx, AioPolledEvent *poll,
-                                int64_t block_ns);
+static void update_handler_poll_times(AioContext *ctx, int64_t block_ns,
+                                      int64_t dispatch_time);
+static void adjust_polling_time(AioContext *ctx, int64_t block_ns);
 
 bool aio_poll_disabled(AioContext *ctx)
 {
@@ -359,7 +361,7 @@ static bool aio_dispatch_handler(AioContext *ctx, AioHandler *node)
 
 static bool aio_dispatch_ready_handlers(AioContext *ctx,
                                         AioHandlerList *ready_list,
-                                        int64_t block_ns)
+                                        int64_t dispatch_time)
 {
     bool progress = false;
     AioHandler *node;
@@ -369,11 +371,11 @@ static bool aio_dispatch_ready_handlers(AioContext *ctx,
         progress = aio_dispatch_handler(ctx, node) || progress;
 
         /*
-         * Adjust polling time only after aio_dispatch_handler(), which can
-         * add the handler to ctx->poll_aio_handlers.
+         * Update last_dispatch_timestamp to mark this as an active
+         * handler for polling time adjustment and prevent idle removal.
          */
         if (ctx->poll_max_ns && QLIST_IS_INSERTED(node, node_poll)) {
-            adjust_polling_time(ctx, &node->poll, block_ns);
+            node->last_dispatch_timestamp = dispatch_time;
         }
     }
 
@@ -394,7 +396,7 @@ void aio_dispatch(AioContext *ctx)
         ctx->fdmon_ops->dispatch(ctx);
     }
 
-    /* block_ns is 0 because polling is disabled in the glib event loop */
+    /* Set now to 0 as polling is disabled in the glib event loop */
     aio_dispatch_ready_handlers(ctx, &ready_list, 0);
 
     aio_free_deleted_handlers(ctx);
@@ -415,9 +417,6 @@ static bool run_poll_handlers_once(AioContext *ctx,
     QLIST_FOREACH_SAFE(node, &ctx->poll_aio_handlers, node_poll, tmp) {
         if (node->io_poll(node->opaque)) {
             aio_add_poll_ready_handler(ready_list, node);
-
-            node->poll_idle_timeout = now + POLL_IDLE_INTERVAL_NS;
-
             /*
              * Polling was successful, exit try_poll_mode immediately
              * to adjust the next polling time.
@@ -458,11 +457,10 @@ static bool remove_idle_poll_handlers(AioContext *ctx,
     }
 
     QLIST_FOREACH_SAFE(node, &ctx->poll_aio_handlers, node_poll, tmp) {
-        if (node->poll_idle_timeout == 0LL) {
-            node->poll_idle_timeout = now + POLL_IDLE_INTERVAL_NS;
-        } else if (now >= node->poll_idle_timeout) {
+        if (node->poll_ready == false &&
+            now >= node->last_dispatch_timestamp + POLL_IDLE_INTERVAL_NS) {
             trace_poll_remove(ctx, node, node->pfd.fd);
-            node->poll_idle_timeout = 0LL;
+            node->last_dispatch_timestamp = 0LL;
             QLIST_SAFE_REMOVE(node, node_poll);
             if (ctx->poll_started && node->io_poll_end) {
                 node->io_poll_end(node->opaque);
@@ -560,18 +558,13 @@ static bool run_poll_handlers(AioContext *ctx, AioHandlerList *ready_list,
 static bool try_poll_mode(AioContext *ctx, AioHandlerList *ready_list,
                           int64_t *timeout)
 {
-    AioHandler *node;
     int64_t max_ns;
 
     if (QLIST_EMPTY_RCU(&ctx->poll_aio_handlers)) {
         return false;
     }
 
-    max_ns = 0;
-    QLIST_FOREACH(node, &ctx->poll_aio_handlers, node_poll) {
-        max_ns = MAX(max_ns, node->poll.ns);
-    }
-    max_ns = qemu_soonest_timeout(*timeout, max_ns);
+    max_ns = qemu_soonest_timeout(*timeout, ctx->poll_ns);
 
     if (max_ns && !ctx->fdmon_ops->need_wait(ctx)) {
         /*
@@ -587,43 +580,85 @@ static bool try_poll_mode(AioContext *ctx, AioHandlerList *ready_list,
     return false;
 }
 
-static void adjust_polling_time(AioContext *ctx, AioPolledEvent *poll,
-                                int64_t block_ns)
+static void adjust_polling_time(AioContext *ctx, int64_t block_ns)
 {
-    if (block_ns <= poll->ns) {
-        /* This is the sweet spot, no adjustment needed */
-    } else if (block_ns > ctx->poll_max_ns) {
-        /* We'd have to poll for too long, poll less */
-        int64_t old = poll->ns;
+    if (block_ns < ctx->poll_ns) {
+        int64_t old = ctx->poll_ns;
+        int64_t shrink = ctx->poll_shrink;
 
-        if (ctx->poll_shrink) {
-            poll->ns /= ctx->poll_shrink;
-        } else {
-            poll->ns = 0;
+        if (shrink == 0) {
+            shrink = 2;
         }
 
-        trace_poll_shrink(ctx, old, poll->ns);
-    } else if (poll->ns < ctx->poll_max_ns &&
-               block_ns < ctx->poll_max_ns) {
+        if (block_ns < (ctx->poll_ns / shrink)) {
+            ctx->poll_ns /= shrink;
+        }
+
+        trace_poll_shrink(ctx, old, ctx->poll_ns);
+    } else if (block_ns > ctx->poll_ns) {
         /* There is room to grow, poll longer */
-        int64_t old = poll->ns;
+        int64_t old = ctx->poll_ns;
         int64_t grow = ctx->poll_grow;
 
         if (grow == 0) {
             grow = 2;
         }
 
-        if (poll->ns) {
-            poll->ns *= grow;
+        if (block_ns > ctx->poll_ns * grow) {
+            ctx->poll_ns = block_ns;
         } else {
-            poll->ns = 4000; /* start polling at 4 microseconds */
+            ctx->poll_ns *= grow;
         }
 
-        if (poll->ns > ctx->poll_max_ns) {
-            poll->ns = ctx->poll_max_ns;
+        if (ctx->poll_ns > ctx->poll_max_ns) {
+            ctx->poll_ns = ctx->poll_max_ns;
         }
 
-        trace_poll_grow(ctx, old, poll->ns);
+        trace_poll_grow(ctx, old, ctx->poll_ns);
+    }
+}
+
+static void update_handler_poll_times(AioContext *ctx, int64_t block_ns,
+                                      int64_t dispatch_time)
+{
+    AioHandler *node;
+    int64_t max_poll_ns = -1;
+
+    QLIST_FOREACH(node, &ctx->poll_aio_handlers, node_poll) {
+        if (node->last_dispatch_timestamp == dispatch_time) {
+            /*
+             * Active handler: had an event in this aio_poll() call.
+             * Update poll.ns using a weighted average of the current
+             * block_ns and previous poll.ns to smooth adjustments.
+             */
+            node->poll.ns = node->poll.ns
+                ? (node->poll.ns - (node->poll.ns >> POLL_WEIGHT_SHIFT))
+                + (block_ns >> POLL_WEIGHT_SHIFT) : block_ns;
+
+            if (node->poll.ns > ctx->poll_max_ns) {
+                node->poll.ns = 0;
+            }
+            /*
+             * Track the maximum poll.ns among active handlers to
+             * calculate the next polling time.
+             */
+            max_poll_ns = MAX(max_poll_ns, node->poll.ns);
+        } else {
+            /*
+             * Inactive handler: no event in this aio_poll() call but
+             * was active before. Increase poll.ns by block_ns. If it
+             * exceeds poll_max_ns, reset to 0 until next event.
+             */
+            if (node->poll.ns != 0) {
+                node->poll.ns += block_ns;
+                if (node->poll.ns > ctx->poll_max_ns) {
+                    node->poll.ns = 0;
+                }
+            }
+        }
+    }
+    if (max_poll_ns >= 0) {
+        adjust_polling_time(ctx, max_poll_ns);
     }
 }
 
@@ -635,6 +670,7 @@ bool aio_poll(AioContext *ctx, bool blocking)
     int64_t timeout;
     int64_t start = 0;
     int64_t block_ns = 0;
+    int64_t dispatch_ns = 0;
 
     /*
      * There cannot be two concurrent aio_poll calls for the same AioContext (or
@@ -711,7 +747,8 @@ bool aio_poll(AioContext *ctx, bool blocking)
 
     /* Calculate blocked time for adaptive polling */
     if (ctx->poll_max_ns) {
-        block_ns = qemu_clock_get_ns(QEMU_CLOCK_REALTIME) - start;
+        dispatch_ns = qemu_clock_get_ns(QEMU_CLOCK_REALTIME);
+        block_ns = dispatch_ns - start;
     }
 
     if (ctx->fdmon_ops->dispatch) {
@@ -719,10 +756,14 @@ bool aio_poll(AioContext *ctx, bool blocking)
     }
 
     progress |= aio_bh_poll(ctx);
-    progress |= aio_dispatch_ready_handlers(ctx, &ready_list, block_ns);
+    progress |= aio_dispatch_ready_handlers(ctx, &ready_list, dispatch_ns);
 
     aio_free_deleted_handlers(ctx);
 
+    if (ctx->poll_max_ns) {
+        update_handler_poll_times(ctx, block_ns, dispatch_ns);
+    }
+
     qemu_lockcnt_dec(&ctx->list_lock);
 
     progress |= timerlistgroup_run_timers(&ctx->tlg);
@@ -794,6 +835,7 @@ void aio_context_set_poll_params(AioContext *ctx, int64_t max_ns,
     ctx->poll_max_ns = max_ns;
     ctx->poll_grow = grow;
     ctx->poll_shrink = shrink;
+    ctx->poll_ns = 0;
 
     aio_notify(ctx);
 }
diff --git a/util/aio-posix.h b/util/aio-posix.h
index ab894a3c0f..cd459bbbae 100644
--- a/util/aio-posix.h
+++ b/util/aio-posix.h
@@ -38,7 +38,7 @@ struct AioHandler {
     unsigned flags; /* see fdmon-io_uring.c */
     CqeHandler internal_cqe_handler; /* used for POLL_ADD/POLL_REMOVE */
 #endif
-    int64_t poll_idle_timeout; /* when to stop userspace polling */
+    int64_t last_dispatch_timestamp; /* when last handler was dispatched */
     bool poll_ready; /* has polling detected an event? */
     AioPolledEvent poll;
 };
diff --git a/util/async.c b/util/async.c
index 80d6b01a8a..9d3627566f 100644
--- a/util/async.c
+++ b/util/async.c
@@ -606,6 +606,7 @@ AioContext *aio_context_new(Error **errp)
     timerlistgroup_init(&ctx->tlg, aio_timerlist_notify, ctx);
 
     ctx->poll_max_ns = 0;
+    ctx->poll_ns = 0;
     ctx->poll_grow = 0;
     ctx->poll_shrink = 0;